Ruli Utami 1, Suryo Atmojo 2
Institut Teknologi Adhi Tama Surabaya 1, Universitas Wijaya Putra 2
e-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
ABSTRACT
Stock management is one of the important things that must be considered in a business process, because if not in good management can result in the lack of distribution of products and services to consumers. “X Stationery” is a self-service store that provides office supplies and school products. In its service to the consumer, “X Stationery” makes a continuous ordering to the distributors without making the planning analysis of how many items should be in order to meet the needs of consumers. This results in stock uncertainty (sometimes stocks are abundant, sometimes empty for long periods). To overcome the above problems, the authors offer a solution to create a forecasting analysis or prediction of how many items must be purchased based on sales data in previous periods using Triple Exponential Smoothing Additive method. From data processing forecasting of sales data of Pilot ballpoint on supermarket “X Stationery” using Triple Exponential Smoothing Additive method gives best accuracy value on parameter with value α = 0.6 β = 0.4 γ = 0.5, the result of accuracy resulting from parameter value is 6.8 %
Keyword: Trilple Exponential Smoothing, ATK, Forecasting